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Sector Study 35: Future Housing Demand to 2021

These four Sector Studies are based on Source 59: Household trends and Housing Market Sectors. Each report provides an overview of recent household projections to 2021 and goes on to summarise population change and demand for housing within the context of a key theme from the original research.

35a provides an overview of the key elements of population change and household formation presented in Source 59, demonstrating how they relate to the type of housing required to 2021. Various socio-economic factors such as age, income and ethnicity are considered. It goes on to present a model for dividing the housing market into 5 sectors, each with its own characteristics and future behaviour in the housing market. This new approach considerably helps the work of predicting future demand for social housing.

35b presents an overview of patterns of housing demand by region. It presents demographic and socio-economic projections for each region and highlights those which appear to be key to future housing demand within a region. It develops the housing markets model presented in 35a to examine movement between sectors at a regional level, particularly in relation to changing need for social housing.

35c takes a slightly different approach to the other 3 reports, all of which consider housing demand within the context of no change in the prevailing macro-economic climate - the 'Business as usual' scenario. This report examines the effects of 2 different scenarios on the demand for housing. The first looks at the impact of increased international migration into London - the 'London as a world city' scenario. The second looks at the effect of redistributing net income growth so that around 60% to 80% of households are better off than under 'business as usual', only the richest 20% of households would definitely be worse off under this scenario. This is the 'Reduced poverty' scenario.

35d examines in detail 3 specific groups of households who are vulnerable to exclusion from the housing market through lack of income - older people, lone parents and black and minority ethnic groups. The report is primarily concerned with those households in the Social sector (according to the housing market model presented earlier) and provides an outline of the main characteristics of each of the 3 groups. It aims to assist planners and other professionals understand the differing housing needs within their client population and points to areas where additional research is required.

SS35a.pdf (146 Kb)
SS35b.pdf (142 Kb)
SS35c.pdf (137 Kb)
SS35d.pdf (136 Kb)
 
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